煤炭行业周报：冬储拉运&政策利好，煤价具备向上动能

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a downward trend, with the coal sector down 5.7% last week, underperforming the benchmark index by 2.4 percentage points [2] - Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable, while international prices are rising, indicating upward momentum for coal prices [3] - The demand for coking coal is recovering, supported by macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand, leading to a strong performance in coking coal prices [4] - Short-term forecasts suggest that thermal coal prices are likely to rise due to increased consumption and winter storage demand [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 12.1 times, within the 64.1% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.4 times, within the 55.8% percentile, indicating a week-on-week decline in valuations [2] Price Trends - As of October 13, domestic thermal coal prices are stable at 875 RMB/ton, while international prices have increased: Australian NEWC at 147 USD/ton (up 5%), European ARA at 120 USD/ton (up 4.4%), and South African RB at 112 USD/ton (up 4.7%) [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply is gradually recovering, but transportation capacity is limited due to maintenance on major rail lines. Power plant coal consumption has increased, with a weekly rise of 14.7% [3] - Coking coal prices are also on the rise, with domestic prices reaching 1750 RMB/ton (up 6.1%) and international prices at 222 USD/ton (up 4.72%) [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments and low valuations, as well as coking coal companies with improving operational conditions, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5][6]