Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - Jiangbolong has achieved a revenue breakthrough of over 10 billion yuan in 2023, establishing itself as a leading domestic semiconductor storage company with a diverse product matrix including embedded storage, solid-state drives, mobile storage, and memory bars [2][9] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for storage solutions driven by the AI wave and the "Digital China" initiative, with significant growth potential in the domestic market [2][12] Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 8,330; 2023A: 10,125; 2024E: 16,434; 2025E: 20,543; 2026E: 24,651, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.6% in 2023 [2] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: 73; 2023A: -828; 2024E: 1,021; 2025E: 1,645; 2026E: 2,379, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -13.0% in 2023A to 20.7% in 2026E [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from -1.99 yuan in 2023A to 5.72 yuan in 2026E [2] Business Model and Competitive Position - Jiangbolong has transitioned from a trading model to a comprehensive semiconductor storage enterprise, focusing on technology and brand development [2][17] - The company has established a TCM (Technology Contract Manufacturing) model, collaborating closely with upstream suppliers and Tier 1 customers to enhance its competitive edge [2][18] - Jiangbolong's product lines are well-diversified, with embedded storage accounting for 43.7% of revenue, solid-state drives for 27.7%, mobile storage for 23.0%, and memory bars for 5.1% in 2023 [2][9] Market Opportunities - The global demand for NAND and DRAM storage is expected to grow by 14% in 2024, driven by the AI boom [2][12] - The domestic market for storage replacement in the context of "Xinchuang" (domestic innovation) is projected to exceed 112.8 billion yuan, presenting a significant growth opportunity for Jiangbolong [2][12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.021 billion yuan in 2024, 1.645 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.379 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34, 21, and 15 [2][12] - Jiangbolong's strategic focus on enhancing its supply chain capabilities and expanding its product offerings positions it well for future growth in the semiconductor storage market [2][19]
江波龙：TCM模式升级突破模组天花板，打造国内“航母级”半导体存储龙头