Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Jiangbolong has achieved a revenue breakthrough of over 10 billion yuan in 2023, establishing itself as a leading domestic semiconductor storage company with a diverse product matrix including embedded storage, solid-state drives, mobile storage, and memory bars [2][9] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for storage solutions driven by the AI wave and the "Digital China" initiative, with significant growth potential in the domestic market [2][12] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 8,330 - 2023: 10,125 (21.6% YoY growth) - 2024E: 16,434 (62.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 20,543 (25.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 24,651 (20.0% YoY growth) [2][10] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022: 73 - 2023: -828 - 2024E: 1,021 - 2025E: 1,645 - 2026E: 2,379 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022: 1.1% - 2023: -13.0% - 2024E: 13.7% - 2025E: 18.0% - 2026E: 20.7% [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022: 0.18 - 2023: -1.99 - 2024E: 2.45 - 2025E: 3.95 - 2026E: 5.72 [2][10] Business Overview - Jiangbolong's main business segments include: - Embedded Storage: 43.7% of revenue, 44.23 billion yuan in 2023 - Solid-State Drives: 27.7% of revenue, 28.02 billion yuan in 2023 - Mobile Storage: 23.0% of revenue, 23.28 billion yuan in 2023 - Memory Bars: 5.1% of revenue, 5.13 billion yuan in 2023 [2][9][12] - The company has established a strong market position, being ranked first in the domestic eMMC and UFS market and third globally for Lexar storage cards and flash drives [17] Competitive Analysis - Jiangbolong's growth potential is compared to Kingston, highlighting differences in growth paths, business models, and strategic focus [2][19] - The company has developed a TCM (Technology Contract Manufacturing) model, which enhances collaboration with upstream suppliers and Tier 1 customers, differentiating it from competitors [2][18] Industry Outlook - The global demand for NAND and DRAM storage is expected to grow by 14% in 2024, driven by the AI wave and increasing storage needs across various sectors [2][12] - The domestic market for storage solutions is projected to exceed 112.8 billion yuan due to the rise of domestic innovation and replacement demand [2][12]
江波龙：TCM模式升级突破模组天花板，打造国内”航母级”半导体存储龙头