集团（US）：“以旧换新”行动有望助力2H24基本面表现稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $49.70 [1][2]. Core Views - The "trade-in" initiative is expected to significantly support JD Group's GMV and revenue growth in the second half of 2024, benefiting from recent fiscal stimulus policies [2][3]. - JD Group's revenue is projected to grow by 5.3% year-on-year to RMB 260.9 billion in Q3 2024, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 6.8% to RMB 11.36 billion [3][4]. - The report highlights that nearly 50% of JD Group's revenue comes from electronic products, indicating a strong consumer upgrade potential [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - JD Group's total revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1,141.3 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 43.1 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.8% [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of 6.7% and 5.99% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][8]. Segment Valuation - The target price adjustment to $49.70 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with JD Retail valued at $37.98 and subsidiaries and investment businesses at $11.72 [9][10]. - The valuation multiples for JD Retail have been increased to 15.0x 2024 forecast PE, reflecting improved economic and consumption expectations [9][10]. Market Trends - The "trade-in" program has led to significant short-term growth in home appliance sales, with online retail volume and value for major categories increasing by 32.1% and 39.5%, respectively [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of further policies that could impact economic and consumer demand [4][8].