基础化工行业周报:两部委发文支持新材料产业中试平台建设,原油价格上涨
Huaan Securities·2024-10-15 05:00

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1]. Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2024, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1][3]. - The demand for synthetic biology is anticipated to surge due to the decline in costs of bio-based materials and breakthroughs in non-food raw materials, leading to a potential profitability boost for leading companies in this sector [1][3]. - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is expected to enter a high prosperity cycle, with a continuous reduction in supply of second-generation refrigerants and stable growth in demand from markets such as heat pumps and cold chains [1][3]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with domestic policies improving demand and creating opportunities for domestic substitution [3]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter raw materials like ethane and propane, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [3]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its industrialization process, with domestic companies likely to break through supply bottlenecks and expand market space [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 22nd this week, with a decline of 6.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.84 percentage points [1][13]. - The top five gainers in the chemical sector included WTI crude oil (+11.25%) and phthalic anhydride (+10.83%), while the top five losers included liquid chlorine (-29.41%) and phenol (-7.65%) [1][7]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 110 chemical enterprises were affected in terms of capacity, with 12 undergoing maintenance and 9 restarting operations [1][7]. Key Industry Tracking - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with major players controlling 90.85% of the total capacity, and the supply situation is expected to improve as demand recovers [6]. - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a potential price recovery [4]. Company Performance - The top three gainers in the chemical sector this week were Huafeng Superfiber (+42.3%), Hongda New Materials (+38.8%), and Zhizheng Co. (+27.8%) [19]. - The top three losers included Haixin Energy Technology (-23.0%), Huifeng Co. (-18.3%), and Lingpai Technology (-15.5%) [21].