上市券商2024Q3业绩前瞻：低基数叠加市场提振，预计单季利润显著改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage industry [1]. Core Insights - The performance of listed brokerages is expected to improve significantly in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year profit increase of 48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% due to low base effects and market recovery [3][4]. - The report suggests increasing holdings in leading brokerages benefiting from supply-side reforms, specifically recommending China Galaxy, CICC H, and CITIC Securities [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit of 43 listed brokerages is projected to decline by 4.16% year-on-year, with adjusted operating revenue expected to decrease by 5.91% to CNY 300.23 billion [4][6]. - In Q3 2024, adjusted operating revenue is anticipated to be CNY 109.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [6][7]. 2. Business Segments 2.1 Brokerage Business - Brokerage revenue is expected to decline by 16.24% to CNY 64.39 billion due to low trading volumes and reduced commission rates [10][12]. 2.2 Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue is projected to drop by 38.77% to CNY 21.58 billion, primarily due to tightened equity financing conditions [13][15]. 2.3 Asset Management - Asset management revenue is expected to decrease by 1.61% to CNY 34.17 billion, mainly due to lower management fee rates [15][18]. 2.4 Credit Business - Credit business revenue is anticipated to decline by 24.42% to CNY 25.89 billion, driven by increased liabilities [18][20]. 2.5 Investment Business - Investment revenue is projected to increase by 21.04% to CNY 134.26 billion, supported by a favorable market environment [20][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that recent policy measures are beneficial for the brokerage sector, recommending an overweight position in leading brokerages that will benefit from supply-side reforms [23][25].