全球IC载板行业跟踪：PC及服务器市场回暖，ABF载板复苏已现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the global IC substrate industry [1] Core Insights - The recovery of the PC and server markets is driving the resurgence of ABF substrates, with signs of improvement observed in the second quarter of 2024 [2][3] - The demand for ABF substrates is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing needs from AI and high-performance computing [2][3] Industry Overview - IC packaging substrates are essential materials in chip packaging, providing support, heat dissipation, and protection while facilitating electronic connections between chips and PCBs [4] - The global market for IC packaging substrates was valued at approximately 94.48 billion yuan in 2023, with ABF substrates accounting for about 50.71 billion yuan [6] Demand Tracking - The PC market has shown signs of recovery after eight consecutive quarters of decline, with global shipments reaching 64.9 million units in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [21] - The server market also ended six consecutive quarters of decline, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.3% in Q2 2024 [31] - The demand for ABF substrates is expected to be driven primarily by servers, which are projected to account for 75-85% of ABF material demand by 2030 [18] ABF Industry Chain Tracking - The peak of capital expenditure among major substrate manufacturers has passed, with many companies having already expanded their capacities by the first half of 2024 [2][3] - The supply chain for ABF substrates is showing signs of stabilization, with revenue in Q2 2024 indicating a bottoming out [2][3] - Major manufacturers like IBIDEN and AT&S are adjusting their production plans in response to market conditions, with a focus on high-performance products for AI servers [42][44] Key Trends - The ABF substrate market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2021 to 2026, outpacing the growth of BT substrates [18] - AI server shipments are projected to grow significantly, with an estimated 1.2 million units shipped in 2023, reflecting a 40.7% increase from 2022 [28] - The average value of ABF substrates used in servers is expected to be nine times that of those used in PCs by 2025 [24]