煤炭行业周报（2024年第40期）：焦煤价格回升，动力煤小幅震荡，板块价值与弹性兼备

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight pullback in thermal coal prices, while the coking coal market sentiment remains positive. As of October 12, the CCI 5500 thermal coal price was reported at 865 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton from the previous week. The overall decline in domestic thermal coal prices is attributed to the completion of seasonal stockpiling by downstream users before the National Day holiday and the seasonal decrease in coal demand in October. However, macroeconomic expectations are improving, and industrial demand is expected to grow steadily during the peak season, with winter stockpiling demand also increasing. Therefore, the short-term decline in coal prices is expected to be limited, with potential stabilization and recovery in the future [2][3][54]. Market Dynamics - Thermal Coal: The price of thermal coal has shown a slight decline, with the main production areas experiencing stable to slightly lower prices. The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was reported at 865 RMB/ton, while the price in the Shanxi region remained stable. Internationally, the price of thermal coal from Newcastle, Australia, was reported at 90.5 USD/ton, up 3.4% week-on-week [11][49]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal has increased, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang port reported at 2010 RMB/ton, up 140 RMB/ton from the previous week. The demand for coking coal has been supported by rising iron and steel production and improved operating rates at coking plants [30][41]. - Coke: The price of coke has also risen, with the price at Tianjin port reported at 1880 RMB/ton, up 150 RMB/ton week-on-week. The operating rate of coking plants in North China has increased, indicating a recovery in demand [42][52]. Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to stabilize and slightly recover due to improved macroeconomic expectations, seasonal demand recovery, and limited supply growth elasticity. The average dividend yield for the industry is projected to exceed 5% in 2024, highlighting the valuation and dividend advantages of the sector [3][56]. - Recommended companies include those with stable profits and high dividends in thermal coal, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [3][56].