银行行业跟踪分析：财政有所加力

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The overall financial data remains weak but shows improvement in structure compared to July and August. The M2 growth rate has rebounded due to fiscal support and active capital markets, although the overall financial data is still in a weak state [1]. - Government fiscal efforts have increased, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.54 trillion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 540 billion yuan. This expansion is expected to improve inflation, economic circulation, and market confidence [1][2]. - Demand from the household sector remains weak, with credit volume and structure still underperforming. There is an expectation that increased fiscal efforts will improve household income and restore demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth rate is at 8.0% in September, slightly down from 8.1% in August. Loan growth is at 8.1%, while deposit growth is at 7.1%. M2 growth is at 6.8%, and M1 growth remains negative at -7.4% [11][12]. Government Sector - The government has increased fiscal efforts, with net financing of government bonds showing a significant year-on-year increase. The pace of government bond financing is expected to slow down in October as new quotas are awaited [1][2]. Household Sector - The household sector continues to show weak demand, with credit volume and structure lagging. There is anticipation that fiscal measures will enhance household income expectations and stimulate demand recovery [1][2]. Corporate Sector - Credit remains weak in the corporate sector, with a slight increase in deposits. The overall credit volume has decreased year-on-year, but there are signs of improvement in the structure of corporate deposits [2]. Non-Bank Sector - Non-bank loans have seen a slight increase, while non-bank deposits have significantly increased, likely due to heightened activity in the capital markets. This shift indicates a migration of household wealth towards financial markets [2].