Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 17.39, implying a 32.7% upside from the current price [1][3] Core Views - Strong Q3 2024 performance with revenue of RMB 8.086 billion, up 26.64% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 881 million, up 141.07% YoY [1] - Gold price surge driving profitability, with London spot gold reaching USD 2,648.8/oz, up 13.64% since June 2024 [1] - Incremental projects progressing well, including the full acquisition of Tietto and the development of the Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3.458 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 328 million, up 192.86% YoY [1] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: RMB 1.25 billion, RMB 1.98 billion, and RMB 2.7 billion, respectively [1] - EPS for 2024-2026 forecasted at RMB 0.37, RMB 0.58, and RMB 0.79, respectively [4] Gold Market and Company Positioning - Gold revenue accounted for 89% of total revenue and 99% of gross profit in H1 2024 [1] - Haiyu Gold Mine has a total gold resource of 562.37 tons and recoverable reserves of 212.21 tons, with an average grade of 4.42 g/t [1] - Tietto acquisition adds over 40 tons of gold reserves, with annual production expected to reach 5 tons [1] Valuation and Growth Prospects - Target price of HKD 17.39 based on 30x 2025 PE, reflecting strong growth potential from gold price trends and project developments [1] - Revenue growth forecasted at 53% in 2024, 23% in 2025, and 23% in 2026 [4] - Net profit growth forecasted at 82% in 2024, 57.8% in 2025, and 36.9% in 2026 [4] Financial Metrics - Gross margin improved to 45.2% in 2024E, 47.2% in 2025E, and 48.9% in 2026E [5] - Net margin expected to rise to 9.7% in 2024E, 12.4% in 2025E, and 13.9% in 2026E [5] - ROE forecasted at 6.4% in 2024E, 9.3% in 2025E, and 11.6% in 2026E [5]
招金矿业：三季度盈利水平持续提升，增量项目有序推进