HKEX(00388)2024-10-15 06:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to reach a quarterly performance peak in Q4 2024, with current valuations having returned to a safe margin [6][28] - The trading volume is anticipated to benefit directly from increased activity, while investment income remains high due to the lagging effect of margin investment returns relative to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [28] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a reversal in late September, with trading activity significantly increasing [10] - As of the end of September 2024, the total market capitalization of listed securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 36.92 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2% [10] - The average daily trading (ADT) for September was HKD 1,692 billion, up 77.1% quarter-on-quarter [10][14] Performance Forecasts - For Q3 2024, the company is projected to have a single-quarter net profit of HKD 3.326 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [26] - The total revenue and investment income for Q3 2024 is expected to be HKD 5.574 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [26] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue and investment income are projected to be HKD 161.95 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [26] Q4 Performance Elasticity - The company’s performance in Q4 2024 is expected to show high elasticity, with ADT reaching new highs since September 24 [5][26] - If ADT reaches HKD 4,000 billion, 3,000 billion, and 2,000 billion in Q4, the projected net profits for the year would be HKD 148.55 billion, HKD 141.58 billion, and HKD 134.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 19%, and 13% [5][27] Investment Recommendations - The company is recommended for investment due to the anticipated peak in quarterly performance and the current valuation being within a safe margin [6][28] - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are HKD 134.62 billion, HKD 138.73 billion, and HKD 145.77 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 3.1%, and 5.1% [6][28]