食品饮料行业周报：政策预期向好，关注内需改善

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [7][36]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong resilience despite a 7.47% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support in boosting consumer confidence and improving domestic demand [7]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor segment, as well as premium beer brands and resilient companies in the snack and dairy sectors [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47%, with only soft drinks showing a slight increase of 0.17%. The top five gainers included Western Pastoral, Shede Liquor, Dongpeng Beverage, Tianwei Food, and Lianhua Health, with respective increases of 10.28%, 9.42%, 6.83%, 3.36%, and 2.31%. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in *ST Huangtai, Qinghai Spring, Yili, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Xiangpiaopiao, with decreases of 23.02%, 14.47%, 13.88%, 13.75%, and 13.58% [7][12]. 2. Liquor Segment - The report notes that the sales during the dual festivals met expectations, with fluctuations in prices post-festival. The high-end liquor segment continues to face pressure, while the mid-range products (priced between 100-300 yuan) are performing relatively better. The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to focus on brand building, quality improvement, and strategic reforms [7][8]. 3. Beer Segment - The beer sector is expected to see improved sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and lower base effects. The report indicates that raw material costs, particularly for barley, have decreased, enhancing profitability for beer companies. The long-term trend towards premiumization in the beer market remains intact, with a recommendation to focus on key players like Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Snack and Dairy Segments - In the snack sector, some companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the report anticipates sustained growth for leading firms. The dairy segment is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products. Companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are recommended for investment [8][22]. 5. Raw Material Prices - The report provides insights into the prices of key raw materials, noting that milk prices are at 12.16 yuan/liter, with a slight weekly increase, while pork prices are at 29.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.53% [22][23]. 6. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the ongoing promotion of Chinese liquor culture internationally, highlighting the importance of global outreach for the industry [32]. Additionally, it notes a slight increase in the national liquor price index in September, indicating a potential recovery in the market [33].