煤炭行业周报：政策释放叠加冬储支撑，煤炭价格易涨难跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with power plants entering a traditional off-peak period, leading to a cautious outlook among coal producers and traders [1][32]. - The report highlights that macroeconomic benefits are driving an increase in material prices, particularly for coking coal, which has seen a series of price hikes [1][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable cash flow and robust assets for coal companies to maintain high dividends, suggesting a long-term value proposition in the sector [2][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shenwan Coal Index decreased by 5.69%, with various sub-sectors also showing declines [9][10]. 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 Thermal Coal - As of October 11, 2024, the price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 730.00 CNY/ton, up 0.27% week-on-week [12][34]. - The inventory levels at major northern ports reached 32.477 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.47% [34]. 2.2 Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 2,010.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.49% [18][34]. - Coking coal inventories at three major ports totaled 4.0552 million tons, up 2.67% week-on-week [18][34]. 2.3 Downstream Demand - National electricity consumption reached 964.9 billion kWh, an increase of 8.89% year-on-year [25][26]. - The price of rebar was 3,865.00 CNY/ton, down 2.00% week-on-week, while cement prices rose by 1.76% [25][29]. 3. Industry News - The report discusses ongoing government efforts to ensure stable energy supply, including increased coal and natural gas production [30]. - A significant investment project in Hami aims to enhance coal utilization and energy security [30]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Lu'an Environmental Energy announced an increase in its coal resource bidding authority [31]. - China Shenhua reported successful trials for a new gas-fired power generation unit [31]. 5. Weekly Outlook - The report anticipates that as winter approaches, power plants may begin to stockpile coal, potentially increasing demand [32][33]. - The coking coal market remains supported by favorable conditions, with ongoing price increases expected [33].