Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1%. The new social financing added was 3.76 trillion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease. The main drag was the new credit. The scale of social financing stock reached 402.19 trillion yuan, which was in line with market expectations. Additionally, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 1.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 543.7 billion yuan, which remains an important support for the growth rate of social financing [1][4][6]. - The growth of credit continued to be weak, with new RMB loans added in September amounting to 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. The balance of RMB loans from financial institutions was 253.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.4%. The report anticipates that related financing demand will gradually materialize due to the development goals mentioned in the Politburo meeting and the fiscal policy release [1][6][9]. - In September, RMB deposits increased by 3.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. By the end of September, the balance of RMB deposits was 300.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. The structure showed that household deposits increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, non-financial corporate deposits increased by 770 billion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 910 billion yuan. The significant increase in non-bank deposits may be attributed to the heightened activity in the capital market at the end of September, leading to a shift of household wealth towards the capital market [1][10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Stock Growth - In September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1%. The new social financing added was 3.76 trillion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease [4][6]. 2. Credit Growth - The new RMB loans added in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. The balance of RMB loans was 253.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [6][9]. 3. M2 Growth - The M2 growth rate was 6.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. The increase in RMB deposits was 3.74 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [10][12]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the overall financing demand remains weak, but the increase in government bonds provides some support for the growth rate of social financing. The anticipated policy efforts are expected to benefit the gradual recovery of the macro economy and improve the overall asset quality of the banking sector [1][13].
银行行业月报：非银存款明显多增 未来关注政策效能
Wanlian Securities·2024-10-15 07:37