建材行业3Q2024业绩前瞻：景气底部业绩承压，政策传导复苏在即

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in the future [2][9]. Core Insights - The construction materials industry is currently experiencing pressure on performance due to a downturn in demand, particularly in the real estate sector, but there are expectations for recovery driven by policy changes [2][9]. - The report highlights that while Q3 performance may be under pressure, there is optimism for a rebound in Q4 as policies begin to take effect and market conditions improve [9][14]. Summary by Sections Consumer Building Materials - Revenue: Q3 revenue is expected to be under pressure due to a decline in the real estate market, with new home sales facing significant adjustments while the second-hand market shows some recovery. Retail demand is expected to remain stable compared to engineering demand [6][7]. - Profit: Profitability is impacted by increased competition and cost pressures. Although raw material prices have generally decreased, the report anticipates that price reductions will outpace cost declines, leading to overall profit pressure for most companies [7][8]. - Outlook: There is an expectation for a rebound in consumer building materials driven by policy relaxation, which may improve market conditions and demand [9][14]. Cyclical Trends - Cement: The cement industry has faced weak demand in Q3, but prices have begun to recover due to proactive measures by companies. The report anticipates that demand may improve in Q4 as policies are implemented [10][14]. - Glass: The glass sector is experiencing price declines due to reduced demand from the real estate market, with significant inventory accumulation. The report suggests that recovery may take time, with short-term demand potentially coming from renovation projects [15][19]. - Fiberglass: The fiberglass industry has not seen a recovery in demand, with high inventory levels. However, there are expectations for improvement as economic conditions stabilize and fiscal policies are enacted [20][22]. Building Material Company Performance Forecast - The report provides a detailed forecast for various building material companies, indicating expected net profits and year-over-year changes. For example, Conch Cement is projected to have a net profit of approximately 2,203.69 million yuan in Q3 2024, with a potential range of 2,100 to 2,300 million yuan [25].