银行行业月报：非银存款明显多增，未来关注政策效能

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1%. The new social financing added was 3.76 trillion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease. The main drag was the new credit. The scale of social financing stock reached 402.19 trillion yuan, which is in line with market expectations. Additionally, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 1.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 543.7 billion yuan, which is an important support for the growth rate of social financing [1][4][6] - The growth of credit continued to be weak, with new RMB loans added in September amounting to 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. The balance of RMB loans from financial institutions was 253.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [6][9] - In September, RMB deposits increased by 3.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of September was 300.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. The increase in non-bank deposits was significant, possibly due to the increased activity in the capital market at the end of September, leading to a transfer of household wealth to the capital market [10][12] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Growth - In September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1%. The new social financing added was 3.76 trillion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease. The scale of social financing stock reached 402.19 trillion yuan, which is in line with market expectations [4][6] 2. Credit Growth - The new RMB loans added in September amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease. The balance of RMB loans from financial institutions was 253.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [6][9] 3. M2 Growth - The M2 growth rate was 6.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. The increase in RMB deposits was 3.74 trillion yuan, with a balance of 300.88 trillion yuan at the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [10][12] 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the overall financing demand remains weak, but the increase in government bonds provides some support for the growth rate of social financing. With the expected policy push, the macroeconomic environment is anticipated to gradually improve, which may enhance the overall asset quality of the banking sector [13]