宏观研究：政策频出 呵护信贷需求企稳回暖

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, new RMB loans amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, falling short of the expected 1.75 trillion yuan by 0.16 trillion yuan, marking the lowest level for the same period in four years[7] - The year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans was primarily driven by a reduction in household loans and corporate loans, with household loans decreasing by 358.5 billion yuan and corporate loans by 193.4 billion yuan[7] - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, which is expected to improve year-on-year growth in household medium- and long-term loans[8] Group 2: Policy Environment - Recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand have significantly changed the policy environment, which may alter the economic growth trajectory[13] - The acceleration of government bond issuance has contributed to a rebound in new social financing, with September's new social financing reaching 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations[10] - The implementation of proactive fiscal policies is expected to drive credit expansion and support the recovery of social financing[13] Group 3: Financial Innovations - Financial innovations have disrupted the effectiveness of M1 and M2 indicators, with M1 experiencing a year-on-year decline of 7.4% in September, marking six consecutive months of negative growth[11] - M2's year-on-year growth rate increased to 6.8% in September, primarily due to the return of wealth management funds to securities accounts and increased fiscal spending[12] - The widening gap between the year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 indicates potential distortions in the statistical indicators due to financial innovations[12]