医药行业四季度政策展望：创新支持不变，集采暨定扩面

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on innovation and market share expansion among leading companies [2][3] Core Views - The pharmaceutical industry's Q4 policy focus is on the expansion of centralized procurement (集采) and national medical insurance negotiations (医保国谈), with continued support for innovation [2] - The national medical insurance negotiation (国谈) for 2024 is expected to conclude in November, with a stable negotiation environment favoring innovative drugs [3][9] - The average price reduction in the first 9 rounds of centralized procurement (集采) is 55%, with no significant fluctuations in price reductions over the past two years, indicating limited impact on performance [3] - The medical device update is expected to see partial project implementation in Q4 2024, with over 200 billion yuan in demand reported by September 20, 2024 [3] Innovation Drug Policy - The national medical insurance negotiation rules for 2024 remain stable, with the negotiation process expected to conclude in November 2024 [9] - The success rate of medical insurance negotiations has increased from 59% in 2019 to 85% in 2023, with price reductions stabilizing at 50-60% [10] - Innovative drugs are expected to achieve rapid market access and volume growth post-inclusion in the medical insurance catalog, as seen with the case of Furmonertinib (伏美替尼) [11] Centralized Procurement (集采) of Chemical Drugs - The 10th round of centralized procurement for chemical drugs is expected to launch in Q4 2024, with the goal of covering 500 varieties by the end of 2024 [26] - The average price reduction in the first 9 rounds of centralized procurement is 55%, with stable price reductions in recent years [31] - The rules for centralized procurement have been refined, with the 9th round introducing a "Top 4 + Bottom 2" mechanism to ensure fair competition [28] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Centralized Procurement - TCM centralized procurement is expected to accelerate in Q4 2024, with the third batch of national TCM alliance procurement and the first batch of expanded procurement set to begin in October [37] - The average price reduction in the first 5 rounds of TCM centralized procurement is relatively moderate, ranging from 23% to 49.36% [34] - The rules for TCM centralized procurement are complex, with price not being the sole factor for winning bids, and future rules are expected to further optimize grouping and bidding mechanisms [36] Medical Device Updates - Medical device updates are expected to see partial project implementation in Q4 2024, with over 200 billion yuan in demand reported by September 20, 2024 [3] - The centralized procurement of IVD (in vitro diagnostic) reagents continues to advance, with the execution of liver function tests fully implemented and kidney function tests and infectious disease tests gradually being executed [47] High-Value Medical Consumables - The centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables is becoming routine, with the rules becoming more predictable and the marginal impact decreasing [49] - The centralized procurement of electrophysiology consumables is expected to be conducted in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, with the impact on specific categories still needing attention [49]