银行业周报：财政逆周期调节加强，利于银行估值修复

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][31][34] Core Views - The recent fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments are expected to benefit bank valuation recovery [4][31] - The banking index decreased by 0.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points [3][5] - Large banks showed better market performance compared to other segments [3][5] Market Review - For the period from October 8 to October 13, 2024, the banking index fell by 0.77%, ranking 3rd out of 31 sectors [5] - The performance of different bank categories was as follows: large banks increased by 0.96%, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks decreased by 0.62%, 2.94%, and 1.46% respectively [5] - The top-performing banks included Postal Savings Bank (+3.61%) and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [5] Funding Market - The short-term interest rates have generally declined, indicating a loosening of the funding environment [14] - The net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) was low, with a net financing of -2358.60 billion [19][22] - The one-year interbank CD rates for large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.94%, 1.84%, 2.12%, and 2.13% respectively [19][22] Industry and Company Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance is set to introduce a series of targeted incremental policy measures to support local governments in managing debt risks [22][28] - Special government bonds will be issued to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital [22][28] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has released the "Syndicated Loan Business Management Measures," which includes improvements in the definition and standards for syndicate formation [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The recent implementation of incremental fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support stable growth in bank credit [31] - Focus on banks with strong asset quality and sustainable performance, particularly regional banks that may offer higher dynamic dividend yields [31] - Large state-owned banks are expected to enhance operational stability post-capital increase, maintaining significant high dividend value [31]