钢铁行业周报：财政政策扩张预期偏强，顺周期板块景气度有望修复

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Recommended" for the steel industry, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for fiscal policy expansion, which is likely to improve the cyclical sector's performance, particularly in the steel industry [2]. - The actual supply-demand dynamics in the steel market have shown some improvement, although the changes remain relatively limited [2]. - The report suggests monitoring winter storage price policies due to recent price fluctuations in the steel market [2]. Supply Summary - As of October 11, 2024, the total output of the five major steel products reached 8.6382 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.20% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.92% [16][17]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3308 million tons, up 2.22% week-on-week but down 5.23% year-on-year [16][17]. - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel enterprises was 87.51%, increasing by 1.90 percentage points week-on-week but decreasing by 4.42 percentage points year-on-year [16][17]. Demand Summary - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.9283 million tons as of October 11, 2024, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.72% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.67% [23][24]. - The daily transaction volume of construction steel from mainstream traders was 131,400 tons, up 9.62% week-on-week but down 7.25% year-on-year [23][24]. - The total monthly export volume of steel reached 9.4952 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21.31% and a year-on-year increase of 14.82% [23][24]. Inventory Summary - As of October 11, 2024, the total social inventory of the five major steel products was 9.1471 million tons, down 2.19% week-on-week and down 17.96% year-on-year [32][33]. - The total inventory within factories for the five major steel products was 3.9539 million tons, decreasing by 2.10% week-on-week and down 19.06% year-on-year [32][34]. Cost Summary - The price index for Australian iron ore was 775.25 RMB/wet ton as of October 11, 2024, down 4.05% week-on-week and down 16.57% year-on-year [2]. - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,619.05 RMB/ton, up 4.39% week-on-week but down 11.12% year-on-year [2]. Price Summary - The Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,869.78 RMB/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week but up 15.39% month-on-month [2]. - The global steel price index stood at 208.2 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.63% [2]. Key Companies and Profit Forecast - The report highlights key companies such as Baosteel (600019.SH), Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) for investment consideration [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Baosteel is 0.52 RMB for 2024E, while Nanjing Steel is projected at 0.39 RMB, and Hualing Steel at 0.48 RMB [3].