2024年9月贸易数据点评：短、中期因素叠加，出口增速超预期回落

Trade Overview - In the first nine months of 2024, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached $45,458.2 billion, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with export growth at 4.3% and import growth at 2.2%[3] - The trade surplus expanded to $689.5 billion, up from $622.4 billion in the same period of 2023[3] Monthly Performance - In September 2024, exports grew by only 2.4%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared to August, while imports rose by 0.3%, down by 0.2 percentage points[3] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, higher than the $75.12 billion recorded in the same month last year[3] External Factors - Extreme weather events, such as typhoons, caused delays at major Chinese container ports, contributing to the decline in export growth[3] - Weak manufacturing performance in the US and Europe, with the US ISM manufacturing index at 47.2% and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 45%, indicates ongoing external demand challenges[3] Trade Partners - Exports to the EU increased, while exports to ASEAN, South Korea, and Japan saw declines; exports to the US remained stable[6] - In the first nine months, trade with ASEAN totaled $715.77 billion, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, making it China's largest trading partner[6] Commodity Exports - Major commodities like automobiles, ships, and home appliances saw export growth exceeding 20%, while exports of grains and traditional Chinese medicine declined[9] - High-tech product exports turned from a 9.11% increase to a 1.15% decrease in September, indicating a significant slowdown in this sector[10] Import Trends - Agricultural imports, including grains and soybeans, showed growth, with grain imports up by 7.8% year-on-year, while edible oil imports fell by 24.1%[11] - The import growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products slowed, with mechanical product imports increasing by 7.8% and high-tech product imports by 11.9%[12]