Investment Rating - Maintains a Buy rating for JD com with a target price of USD 53 50, up 3% from the previous target of USD 51 90 [1][10] Core Views - JD com is expected to achieve 5% YoY revenue growth in Q3 2024, in line with Bloomberg consensus, driven by improved consumer sentiment and the nationwide appliance trade-in program [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a 7% YoY increase to RMB 11 4 billion, supported by effective cost control and service revenue growth [1] - The company is shifting focus from investment returns and cost control to GMV and revenue growth, which is expected to drive further stock price appreciation [1] - JD Retail (JDR) is projected to achieve RMB 223 6 billion in revenue, a 5% YoY increase, with non-GAAP operating profit rising 3% YoY to RMB 11 4 billion [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2024, JD com is estimated to generate RMB 260 billion in revenue, with 4% YoY growth in net product revenue and 8% YoY growth in net service revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is forecasted at RMB 114 billion, a 7% YoY increase, surpassing market expectations by 1% [1] - The 2024 full-year revenue forecast remains largely unchanged, but the non-GAAP net profit forecast is revised upward by 1 4% due to better-than-expected cost control [2] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The target price of USD 53 50 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 11 8% and a terminal growth rate of 1 5%, implying a 14x P/E ratio for 2024 [10] - JD com announced a new USD 5 billion share repurchase program, effective from September 2024 to August 2027, representing 2 6% of the current market cap annually, which is expected to support valuation [2] Segment Performance - JD Retail (JDR) is expected to see a 5% YoY revenue growth in Q3 2024, driven by a rebound in the Home Appliances and Home Goods (EH&A) segment and steady growth in general merchandise [1] - The Marketplace and Advertising revenue is projected to grow 8% YoY, benefiting from improved ad revenue and positive commission growth [1] Financial Metrics - JD com's gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 15 3% in 2024, with non-GAAP net profit margin at 3 7% [8][9] - The company's ROE is forecasted to rise to 14 9% in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [16] Market and Industry Context - The report highlights JD com's ability to capitalize on improved consumer sentiment and government initiatives like the appliance trade-in program, which are expected to drive growth in the coming quarters [1]
京东：预计第三季度收入增长 ， 上行来自底线