铜行业跟踪：24Q3降息影响定价，铜迎年内二次上涨行情

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the copper industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is experiencing a second price increase in 2024, driven by a shift in monetary policy from tightening to easing, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut boosting market sentiment [5][12][14] - Global copper supply is tightening, with a decrease in copper ore imports and an increase in refined copper exports, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [6][25] - Demand for copper is strong in sectors such as electricity, new energy vehicles, and home appliances, with significant growth in investment in power generation and grid infrastructure [31][36] Summary by Sections 1. Interest Rate Impact and Price Trends - The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024 has positively impacted copper prices, marking a transition to a looser monetary policy environment [12][14] - U.S. non-farm employment rose by 254,000 in September, exceeding expectations, which has alleviated concerns about the labor market [5][12] 2. Supply Dynamics - Copper ore imports in China decreased by 4.4% year-on-year in August 2024, while refined copper exports surged by 49.57% in the same month [25][23] - The spot price for copper concentrate has increased from $2.60 per dry ton at the end of June to $9.10 per dry ton by early October 2024 [23] 3. Demand Drivers - The electricity sector accounted for 46.7% of copper consumption, with significant investments in power generation and grid projects showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 23.1%, respectively [31][36] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales of electric vehicles increasing by 32% and 33% year-on-year [31][36] 4. Inventory Levels - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory has been decreasing since July 2024, while LME copper inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [44] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the copper sector [50]