Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a synchronized performance with the broader market [2][12]. Core Insights - The software industry's revenue growth is expected to decline in 2024, with a reported revenue of 8.55 trillion yuan for the first eight months, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth in the software sector has also weakened, with total profits of 1.0226 trillion yuan for the same period, marking a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth by 1.4 percentage points [7][9]. - High-performing sub-sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud and big data services, with IC design growing by 13.8% year-on-year [10][11]. - Huawei has emerged as a leader in the domestic tablet market, surpassing Apple in Q1 2024 with a market share of 26% [17][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic software and hardware localization, particularly with the advancement of Huawei's Harmony OS, which has reached a significant milestone with over 9 billion devices and 2.54 million developers [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - The software industry's revenue growth is declining, with a reported 11.2% increase in revenue for the first eight months of 2024 compared to 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth has also decreased, with a total profit of 1.0226 trillion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth [7][9]. - High-growth sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud services, with IC design leading at 13.8% growth [10][11]. News and Announcements - Huawei's Harmony OS is gaining traction, with significant market share and developer engagement, indicating a strong push towards domestic software solutions [26][27]. - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic products in light of international uncertainties, particularly in the context of the recent geopolitical events [24][26]. Investment Strategy - The computer industry saw a significant rise in September, with the CITIC computer index increasing by 35.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.92 percentage points [48][49]. - The report suggests that the overall market conditions and the performance of the computer sector are likely to remain favorable, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased foreign investment [12][48].
计算机行业月报:国产化领域亮点突出,鸿蒙表现值得重点关注
Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-15 11:00