2024年9月贸易数据解读：受外需放缓等拖累9月出口增速较快下行，进口增速低位放缓

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's export value increased by 2.4% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from August's 8.7% growth[1] - The cumulative export growth from January to September 2024 slowed to 4.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The global manufacturing PMI index from JPMorgan fell to 48.8% in September, indicating a contraction for three consecutive months, which correlates closely with China's export trends[2] Import Trends - In September 2024, China's import value grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The month-on-month import growth was only 2.0%, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 5.3% for the same period[5] - The decline in international commodity prices has negatively impacted import value growth, particularly in crude oil and iron ore, which saw year-on-year price drops exceeding 10%[6] Trade Partners Analysis - Exports to the United States grew by 2.2% in September, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to reduced import demand from the U.S.[4] - Exports to the European Union and Japan fell by 1.3% and 7.1%, respectively, with significant declines of 12.1 and 7.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, grew by 5.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from August, reflecting a slowdown in ASEAN's economic growth[4] Future Outlook - Despite the potential for positive growth in exports in Q4 due to lower base effects from the previous year, external demand is expected to remain weak, posing risks to export performance[4] - The new export orders index in the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.5%, indicating a significant decline in export order expectations[4] - The recent implementation of a series of policy measures is expected to boost market confidence, but the impact on import demand may take time to materialize[6]