芯原股份：业绩预告隐藏信息：煤炭下游盈利修复，智能手机市场回暖！

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Shanghai Electric with an expected net profit of 2.252 billion to 2.680 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.3% to 82.4% [2][4]. Core Insights - The recovery in profitability for downstream coal-related industries is highlighted, particularly for Shanghai Electric, which is expected to benefit from the decline in coal prices [2][5]. - The report notes that the overall performance of the power generation sector is improving, with several companies, including Shanghai Electric and Fuchun Environmental, showing significant profit growth [3][4]. - The smartphone market is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Stmicroelectronics reporting substantial increases in revenue and net profit due to rising demand [11][18]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - Shanghai Electric anticipates a net profit of 2.252 billion to 2.680 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, marking an increase of 7.83 billion to 12.11 billion compared to the previous year [2][4]. - Fuchun Environmental expects a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 80% for the same period, indicating strong performance in the power and heat service sector [3][4]. Industry Analysis - The report discusses the impact of coal price fluctuations on profitability, noting that Shanghai Electric's profit margins are closely tied to coal prices, which have been declining since 2022 [5][8]. - The recovery in the smartphone market is attributed to a three-year replacement cycle, with global smartphone shipments showing positive growth in recent quarters [18][20]. Company Comparisons - Shanghai Electric's primary energy source is coal, which has allowed it to achieve higher profit margins compared to competitors like Gansu Energy, which relies more on hydropower [4][5]. - Stmicroelectronics has seen a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by its focus on the smartphone sector, which is expected to continue growing in 2024 [11][12].