Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the real estate market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index dropping by 8.31% and the CSI 300 Index down by 3.25%, resulting in a relative return of -5.06% [1][8] - The report indicates that the fundamental conditions of the sector are nearing a bottom, with ongoing policy support expected to lead to a valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 8.31%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.25%, indicating underperformance of the sector compared to the broader market [1][8] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of October 4-10, the tracked 38 key cities saw a total of 16,872 new homes sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 35.6% and a month-on-month decline of 45.9%. The total transaction area was 1.656 million square meters, down 38.5% year-on-year and 52.2% month-on-month [16][27] - In the same week, the tracked 16 key cities recorded 10,877 second-hand homes sold, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.7%. The total area sold was 1.003 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year but up 1.4% month-on-month [4][37] 3. Inventory Situation - The total inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 196,563,000 square meters, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% and a depletion cycle of 170.5 weeks [38] 4. Land Market Analysis - In the week of October 4-10, land supply was 30,613,000 square meters, down 30.6% year-on-year, while land transaction volume was 10,213,000 square meters, down 74.3% year-on-year [4] 5. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 1 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 81.5% [4]
房地产行业周报:发改委落实一揽子增量政策,住房限购持续优化调整
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-15 12:30