中国建筑：前三季度建筑新签增长有韧性，地产销售承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported resilient growth in new signed contracts for its construction business in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total of 2,987.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%. However, there was a slight decline in new contracts in September, down 3% year-on-year [10][11] - The real estate sales continue to face pressure, with a total contract sales amount of 260.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 22% year-on-year. The sales area also decreased by 29% year-on-year [10][11] - The company maintains a strong land acquisition strategy, with a new land reserve of 4.96 million square meters, up 13% year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in total land reserves compared to the end of 2023 [10][11] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the new signed contracts for construction business were 2,987.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8%. The breakdown for the first nine months includes 2,001.1 billion yuan for housing construction, 976.3 billion yuan for infrastructure, and 10 billion yuan for survey and design, with respective year-on-year changes of +1%, +26%, and -3% [10][11] - For September alone, the new signed contracts were 369.1 billion yuan, with housing construction and infrastructure contracts down 4% and 3% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenue growth for 2024-2026 to be 2,433.9 billion yuan, 2,621.1 billion yuan, and 2,815.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 59.1 billion yuan, 64.2 billion yuan, and 68.9 billion yuan for the same period, with respective growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 7% [10][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan, 1.54 yuan, and 1.66 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% [10][11] Valuation - The current price corresponds to a 2024E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.5x and a dividend yield of 4.6%, indicating a favorable valuation [10][11]