进出口数据点评：贸易阶段性转弱

Export Data Summary - In September, China's exports increased by 2.4% year-on-year to $303.71 billion, down from 8.7% in the previous month[1] - Imports rose by 0.3% to $222 billion, compared to a previous growth of 0.5%[1] - The trade surplus decreased to $81.71 billion from $91.02 billion in the prior month[1] Export Performance by Region - Exports to the United States amounted to $47.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, slowing by 2.8 percentage points from August[2] - Exports to the European Union were $42.06 billion, growing by 1.3%, a decline of 12.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports to Japan fell by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating a contraction[2] - Exports to ASEAN countries grew by 5.5%, but the growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points compared to August[2] Contribution to Export Growth - The contribution of exports to the U.S. was 0.3 percentage points, down 0.5 from August[2] - ASEAN's contribution was 0.8 percentage points, also down by 0.5[2] - Exports to Japan negatively impacted growth by 0.3 percentage points[2] - The contribution from the EU was 0.2 percentage points, showing a significant decrease[2] Sector Performance - The machinery and electronics sector contributed 1.8 percentage points to export growth, down 5.1 from August[2] - Resource-based industries saw a slight increase, contributing 0.1 percentage points to export growth[2] - Steel exports grew by 11% year-on-year, contributing 0.3 percentage points to total exports[2] - Integrated circuit exports increased by 6%, contributing 0.3 percentage points, down from 0.7 in August[2] - Automotive exports rose by 26%, contributing 0.8 percentage points, a decrease of 0.1 from the previous month[2] - Ship exports surged by 114%, contributing 0.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.3 from August[2] Risks - Geopolitical risks may exceed expectations[3] - Macroeconomic conditions may underperform[3] - Significant volatility in overseas markets could impact trade[3]