东海证券：晨会纪要-20241016

Key Recommendations - Limited incremental information from September financial data, with government bond financing remaining the main support. Key changes may be reflected in the deposit side, influenced by a strong stock market and fiscal efforts, leading to a recovery in M2 growth compared to previous values. However, the demand for real economy financing remains relatively weak, with a slight positive note on short-term loans for residents showing improvement compared to August. Future policies may alleviate local financial constraints and restore market confidence, potentially leading to a recovery in real financing demand [6][7]. - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of CNY 910 billion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.58 billion, attributed to the strong performance of the equity market. This was partly due to a decrease in resident deposits (down CNY 331.6 billion year-on-year) and also influenced by the redemption of wealth management products, which contributed to the recovery of M2 growth [6]. - Government bond financing increased by CNY 1.5353 trillion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 543.3 billion, indicating continued support for social financing [7]. Economic Data Observations - September export growth declined due to elevated base effects and short-term factors such as weather. Exports to the US, EU, and Japan all saw varying degrees of decline, although sectors like shipbuilding, automotive, and steel exports remained relatively strong. The export scale in September was over USD 300 billion, maintaining a high level for five consecutive months [9][10]. - Import growth also saw a slight decline, with September imports amounting to USD 222 billion, marking the highest level since January. The year-on-year decline improved from -7.2% to -6.3%, but the data did not yet reflect significant improvements in domestic demand [10]. Financial News - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced four key measures to enhance the vitality of business entities, including guiding platform enterprises to support merchants, promoting quality reputation as a basis for financing, providing targeted assistance to individual businesses, and accelerating the revision of standards for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the development of new fields such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology, aiming to foster new economic growth engines [12].