耐用消费品：美国经济刺激政策下消费表现复盘

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. consumer spending has benefited from three rounds of cash stimulus totaling $867 billion, approximately 4% of U.S. GDP, leading to varying performance and valuation impacts across related sectors and companies [3][6]. - It suggests that if consumer spending improves as expected, attention should be given to the performance elasticity of leading brands and manufacturers in relevant sectors, drawing parallels between U.S. and Chinese consumer behavior [3][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Consumer Subsidies - The report outlines three rounds of cash payments totaling $867 billion, with the first round providing $1,200 per adult and $500 per child, the second round $600 each, and the third round $1,400 each [6][11]. 2. Textile and Apparel Review - Consumer spending in the textile and apparel sector was primarily stimulated in the third round of cash payments, with significant improvements in sales following the reopening of physical retail [24][29]. - The report notes that the performance of brands like Nike and Adidas was positively impacted by the economic stimulus, with Nike's revenue growth reaching nearly 150% in Q2 2021 compared to the previous year [29][34]. 3. Light Industry Manufacturing Review - The report indicates that midstream manufacturing benefited from early inventory replenishment and global supply chain advantages, showing greater performance elasticity compared to downstream channels and terminal sales [46][50]. - Retail sales in the home goods category returned to pre-pandemic levels shortly after the first round of cash payments, with significant growth observed in subsequent rounds [48][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brands and manufacturers in the textile and light industry sectors, including companies like Li Ning, Anta Sports, and Oppein Home, due to their expected performance elasticity [3][64]. - Specific recommendations include maintaining an "Overweight" rating for companies such as Midea, KUKA, and others in the home goods sector, anticipating strong performance in the coming periods [64].