煤炭行业：财政政策加码预期强化，把握确定性交易机会

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" for the first time [2]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the expectation of intensified fiscal policy, suggesting that investors should seize certain trading opportunities. It highlights a series of targeted incremental policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks [10][11]. - The coal industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to the ongoing capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have effectively reduced excess capacity [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The core logic indicates that the coal industry will continue to experience high prosperity due to the successful implementation of supply-side reforms that have significantly reduced excess capacity [9]. - The report tracks operational performance, noting that major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieved year-on-year increases in coal production and sales [11][12]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal prices, indicating that the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price index (Q5500) was reported at 716.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [14][15]. - The report also highlights the price trends for coking coal and thermal coal, with significant fluctuations noted in various regions [14]. 3. Industry Performance - The report notes that the coal industry has a total market value of approximately 20,145.07 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 19,630.07 billion CNY [2]. - It identifies key companies within the industry, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable policy environment and improving market conditions [10][11].