Carbonomics: The GS net zero carbon scenarios – a reality check

Investment Rating - The report presents three global paths for decarbonization, with the most realistic scenario being aligned with a 2.0°C increase in global temperatures, suggesting a more achievable target compared to the 1.5°C scenario [3][51]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in cumulative emissions, with a 66% rise compared to the 2021 Paris Agreement-aligned scenario, indicating a challenging path to achieving net zero [6][51]. - The energy sector has faced substantial changes since 2021, including the global energy crisis, which has impacted emissions trajectories and necessitated a revised approach to decarbonization [51][52]. - The report emphasizes the need for approximately US$75 trillion in infrastructure investment to achieve carbon neutrality, underscoring the scale of financial commitment required [5][10]. Summary by Sections Emissions Path Developments - Total global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 43.2 Gt in 2023, increasing by 2.2% from 2021-2023, contrary to the initial expectation of a 5% reduction [41][44]. - The power generation sector contributed significantly to the rise in emissions, with a 2% increase instead of the anticipated decrease [41][44]. Changes Compared to 2021 Scenarios - The updated GS 2.0° scenario reflects a more realistic approach to achieving net zero by 2070, contrasting with the previous GS <2.0° scenario aimed at 2060 [51][52]. - The report notes that renewable energy sources, particularly solar and nuclear, have surpassed previous estimates, while the development of wind capacity has been slower than expected [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report estimates a cumulative investment opportunity of approximately US$74.6 trillion across various sectors on the path to global net zero by 2070 [10][12]. - Investments in oil and natural gas are projected to remain necessary beyond 2040, indicating a continued reliance on fossil fuels during the transition [36][38]. Sector-Specific Insights - In transportation, the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has exceeded expectations, with a 35% share in global passenger car sales in 2023 compared to a projected 13% [44][49]. - The buildings sector has seen a 2% reduction in emissions, driven by the deployment of low-carbon technologies and a shift towards renewable energy sources [45][49].