上市险企2024年三季报业绩前瞻：负债端稳健，预计投资改善推动盈利超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, consistent with the previous rating [3][26]. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the equity market is expected to lead to better-than-expected profit improvements for listed insurance companies in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by increased investment income [5][8]. - The report anticipates a sustained growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance, supported by strong customer demand and improvements in value rates [10][16]. - The property insurance sector is expected to see differentiated premium growth, with a slight improvement in the combined ratio (COR) year-on-year [18][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Recovery - The equity market has shown significant recovery, with the CSI 300 index up 17.1% year-to-date as of September 2024, compared to a decline of 4.7% in the same period of 2023 [8]. - This recovery is expected to enhance the investment performance of listed insurance companies, leading to improved net profit forecasts for the first three quarters of 2024, with projected growth rates for major companies such as Xinhua Insurance (102.0%) and China Life (95.7%) [5][8]. 2. Life Insurance Sector - Life insurance premium growth is expected to accelerate, driven by strong customer demand for insurance savings and strategic sales of new policies before the adjustment of pricing rates [10][16]. - The report predicts that the NBV growth rates for the first three quarters of 2024 will be as follows: Xinhua Insurance (66.2%), Taibao Life (36.7%), and Ping An Life (24.1%) [16][17]. 3. Property Insurance Sector - The property insurance sector is experiencing varied premium growth, with the overall premium growth for property insurance companies in the first eight months of 2024 as follows: Taibao Property (7.7%), Ping An Property (5.3%), and China Property (4.3%) [18][21]. - The report anticipates a slight year-on-year improvement in the COR for property insurance companies, with projected ratios of 97.3% for China Property and 98.0% for Ping An Property [24][25]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in China Life and Xinhua Insurance, citing their strong asset flexibility and expected NBV growth in the life insurance sector [26][27].