中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行角度看9月社融：政府债继续支撑，未来取决于政策实施效果-20241016

Core Insights - The report highlights that the increase in social financing in September was 3.76 trillion yuan, which is 372.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year, but higher than the expected 3.52 trillion yuan [3][4] - The structure of social financing indicates that government bond financing continues to support social financing, with new government bond financing reaching 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 543.3 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - The report suggests that the future of social financing will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation [3][4] Social Financing Situation - In September, the total social financing increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - The new RMB loans in September amounted to 1.97 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 563.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3][4] - The report notes that the demand for effective credit remains relatively insufficient, as evidenced by the negative year-on-year growth in short-term loans and bills [3][4] Credit Situation - The new loans in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, which is 720 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a continued decline in credit growth [3][4] - Short-term loans increased, while medium and long-term loans remained low, although there is an expectation for stabilization in residential credit due to adjustments in mortgage rates [3][4] - The report indicates that non-bank credit decreased by 270.4 billion yuan, which is a larger reduction compared to the previous year [3][4] Deposit Situation - In September, total deposits increased significantly, with resident deposits rising by 2.2 trillion yuan and corporate deposits increasing by 770 billion yuan [4] - The increase in deposits is attributed to a rapid rise in the stock market, leading to a substantial inflow of funds into the market [4] - Non-bank deposits saw a notable increase of 910 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as selecting undervalued city commercial banks [4] - It suggests that large banks with high dividend yields, such as Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, are likely to benefit from the weak economic recovery and debt resolution [4]