银行角度看9月社融：政府债继续支撑，未来取决于政策实施效果

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social financing (社融) increased by 3.76 trillion yuan in September, which is lower than the same period last year by 372.2 billion yuan, but higher than the consensus expectation of 3.52 trillion yuan [5][6]. - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing is 8%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][6]. - Government bond financing continues to support social financing, with a significant increase of 1.54 trillion yuan in September, up by 543.3 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Overview - In September, social financing increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, which is lower than the same period last year by 372.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [5][6]. - The stock of social financing grew by 8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease in growth rate [5][6]. Credit Situation - The report indicates that the new RMB loans in September amounted to 1.97 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 563.9 billion yuan [9]. - The structure of new financing shows that government bonds accounted for 40.8%, while corporate bonds saw a negative growth of 5.1% [10]. Deposit Trends - In September, resident deposits increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 331.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. - Corporate deposits rose by 770 billion yuan, which is an increase of 569 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, including Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank [2]. - It also recommends selecting undervalued city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank due to their solid fundamentals [2].