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挖掘机月度数据跟踪：9月挖机销量维持增长，财政政策发力有望拉动需求边际改善
Haitong Securities·2024-10-16 01:10

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the overall opportunities in the excavator industry outweigh the risks, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, domestic excavator sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year, while export sales saw a slight decline of 2.51%. The total sales for major manufacturers reached 15,831 units, marking a 10.8% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The report highlights that the domestic market accounted for 48.07% of total sales in September 2024, with a year-to-date domestic sales growth of 8.62% [5]. - The anticipated implementation of various fiscal policies is expected to marginally improve excavator demand, particularly in the infrastructure and real estate sectors [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite international challenges, China's engineering machinery sector is expected to maintain a high level of export value due to its technological and service advantages [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, the domestic excavator sales reached 7,610 units, while the cumulative sales from January to September 2024 totaled 147,381 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.96% [5]. - The report indicates that the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China increased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year in August 2024, suggesting improved utilization [5]. Policy Impact - The report discusses upcoming fiscal measures aimed at alleviating local government debt risks, which are expected to support the recovery of the construction and real estate sectors, thereby boosting excavator demand [6]. - Specific measures include allowing special bonds for land reserves and optimizing tax policies to stabilize the real estate market [6]. Market Outlook - The report concludes that as policies take effect and market conditions improve, domestic excavator sales growth is likely to continue to rise. The overall sentiment is that the industry presents more opportunities than challenges [6].