2024年9月金融数据解读：股市回暖推动M2增速反弹

Financing Data - In September 2024, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 3.52 trillion yuan but showing a year-on-year decrease of about 356.5 billion yuan[1] - New RMB loans in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, below the market expectation of 1.75 trillion yuan, and decreased by 720 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The new RMB loan scale for social financing was 1.9742 trillion yuan, lower than the five-year average of 2.1119 trillion yuan, indicating a continued lack of effective demand[6] Monetary Supply - The year-on-year growth rates for M1 and M2 in September were -7.4% and 6.8%, respectively, with M1 decreasing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value and M2 increasing by 0.5 percentage points[1] - M1's year-on-year decline reflects a historical low, indicating weak capital expenditure by enterprises and a continued lack of confidence in economic recovery[11] Direct Financing - In September, non-financial corporate stock financing was 12.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with IPO and refinancing activities remaining at low levels[6] - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with new government bond issuance amounting to 1.5357 trillion yuan, an increase of 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year[6] Loan Trends - New loans to residents decreased for eight consecutive months, with September's new resident loans at 500 billion yuan, down 358.5 billion yuan year-on-year[8] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans have decreased for seven consecutive months, reflecting ongoing weak internal financing demand[8] Economic Outlook - The overall structure of new social financing in September showed divergence, primarily supported by government bonds and on-balance sheet bill financing, while internal financing demand from enterprises and residents continued to weaken[12] - The recent policy shift in late September and early October is expected to influence financial data and economic indicators significantly in the short term[12]