2024年9月进出口数据解读：出口超预期回落，偶发因素是主因

Export Data - In September 2024, China's exports in USD terms grew by 2.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of 5.9% and down from the previous value of 8.7%[1] - The month-on-month export change for September was -1.6%, compared to a 5-year average of 2.9% for the same period, indicating weaker seasonal performance[1] - The export of electromechanical products increased by 3.2% year-on-year, a sharp decline from the previous 12.9%, primarily affected by typhoons and high base effects from the previous year[5] Import Data - In September 2024, China's imports in USD terms rose by only 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.5% previously and below the market expectation of 1.2%[1] - The decline in imports was influenced by a 0.7 percentage point drop in the domestic manufacturing PMI import index and falling international commodity prices[8] - Major imports included semiconductors and related products, which saw strong growth, while iron ore and crude oil imports significantly decreased due to falling prices[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, down from $91.02 billion in the previous month, primarily due to the sharp decline in export growth[1] - The contribution to export growth from major trading partners like ASEAN and Russia was significant, with ASEAN contributing 1.09 percentage points and Russia improving by 0.57 percentage points[6] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the decline in exports is mainly due to short-term factors such as extreme weather and high base effects from the previous year, but expects resilience in export amounts in Q4 2024 as weather impacts fade[10] - Domestic policy shifts may lead to continued weak import demand in the short term due to the time lag in policy effects[10]