9月外贸数据点评：出口“假摔”还是“真弱”？

Export Data Summary - In September 2024, China's exports reached $303.71 billion, while imports totaled $222 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $81.71 billion[1] - Year-on-year export growth in September was 2.4%, and import growth was 0.3%, both showing declines of 6.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Cumulative export growth for the year up to September was 4.3%, with August showing a notably high growth of 8.7%[1] Concerns and Trends - The decline in September's export growth rate was the largest since March, dropping 6.3 percentage points from August[1] - Exports to major trading partners (EU, US, ASEAN) all saw year-on-year declines, with specific drops of 12.1, 2.8, and 3.5 percentage points respectively[1] - The only exception was exports to Russia, which increased by 16.6% year-on-year, improving by 6.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] Structural Weakness - Exports across various product categories, including agricultural products, raw materials, and consumer goods, showed a downward trend[1] - The automotive sector's export growth significantly declined, contributing to a 0.4 percentage point drop in total export growth[1] - Extreme weather events in September, such as typhoons, impacted major ports and may have contributed to the overall decline in exports[1] Future Outlook - A potential rebound in exports is expected in October, but the underlying external demand may continue to weaken[1] - Global manufacturing PMI continued to decline in September, indicating a challenging external demand environment[1] - Import growth was marginally positive at 0.3%, with significant increases in soybean imports by 38.8% year-on-year, while electronic products saw a decline[1]