宏观专题研究：解析美国通胀超预期回升的风险

Group 1: Recent Inflation Trends - Recent US core CPI for August-September maintained a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with annual growth rates stabilizing at 3-4%, indicating a rebound compared to May-July[5] - The September core CPI's three-month annualized growth rate rose to 3.1%, while the year-on-year growth remained at 3.3%[5] - Service components show strong stickiness, contributing significantly to the inflation rebound, while core goods remain weak[5] Group 2: Short-term Inflation Risks - The risk of a significant short-term rise in core inflation is generally controllable, with global oil idle capacity at about 8% of total consumption, limiting the potential for drastic price increases[3] - Oil prices have rebounded, with Brent crude nearing $80 per barrel and WTI at $76 per barrel, potentially pushing up energy components[18] - Global supply chain pressures are easing, and manufacturing cycles are stalling, keeping commodity inflation subdued[3] Group 3: Market Expectations and Political Implications - The market may underestimate the risks of inflation rising next year, particularly if Trump is elected, as his policies could significantly increase inflation[23] - Current market expectations suggest US inflation will continue to decline towards target levels, with core PCE projected to drop to 2.7% by the end of 2024[23] - The output gap in the US is expected to turn positive, reaching 1% by Q2 2024, which could lead to inflationary pressures if demand increases unexpectedly[26]