港股或已接近回调支撑位

Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are attributed to three main factors: changes in policy expectations, marginal tightening of overseas liquidity, and rising geopolitical risks, with the first being the primary cause[2] - The current risk premium for Hong Kong stocks is close to the levels observed in mid-July, indicating a potential support level[3] - The Hang Seng Index's forward 12-month PE is currently at 9.1x, slightly above the implied risk premium of 8.9x from earlier calculations[3] Group 2: Future Outlook - It is expected that Hong Kong stocks will likely oscillate around the current support level until early November, influenced by policy validations, corporate earnings reports, and the U.S. elections[4] - The market has already absorbed a significant amount of negative sentiment, suggesting limited further downside potential[4] - Recommended sectors for investment include pharmaceuticals and internet industries, which are sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields and show improving earnings expectations[4] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The MSCI China Index is currently trading at a discount of nearly 20% compared to other emerging markets, indicating potential undervaluation[3] - The AH premium has returned to the upper end of the neutral range at 145, suggesting a balanced valuation perspective[3] - Recent capital inflows have shown a significant rebound, with industrial capital buybacks nearing levels seen in early April of this year, providing resilience to the Hong Kong market[3]