9月社融数据点评：结构有待优化

Economic Data Summary - In September 2024, the incremental social financing scale was 37,634 billion CNY, a decrease of 3,692 billion CNY compared to the same period last year[3] - The total social financing stock reached 402.19 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, slightly down from the previous value of 8.1%[3] Credit and Loan Analysis - New credit in September was 19,742 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5,627 billion CNY, worsening from a decrease of 3,001 billion CNY in the previous month[3] - Residential long-term loans increased by 5,000 billion CNY, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 3,585 billion CNY, indicating significant pressure on household borrowing[3] - Corporate loans saw a new issuance of 14,900 billion CNY, down by 1,934 billion CNY year-on-year, with long-term loans being the most affected[3] Government Bond and Fiscal Policy - Government bond issuance in September was 15,357 billion CNY, an increase of 5,437 billion CNY year-on-year, serving as the main support for social financing[3] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 2,358 billion CNY in September, indicating a shift towards increased government spending[3] Monetary Supply Trends - M1 and M2 growth rates were -7.4% and 6.8% respectively, with the M1-M2 gap widening to -14.2%[3] - Resident deposits decreased by 3,316 billion CNY year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 15,750 billion CNY[3] Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain under pressure, with weak self-financing demand, but supportive factors for social financing are expected to increase due to recent monetary policy measures[3] - The impact of new housing policies introduced on September 24 is anticipated to manifest in improved housing market confidence in the coming months[3]