客座率表现良好，等待收益水平回暖

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" with a recommendation to "Buy" for specific stocks [4][29]. Core Insights - Passenger load factors remain strong post-peak season, with supply and demand structure expected to improve [1][2]. - In September, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 10.6% and 21.2%, respectively, although there was a month-on-month decline [2]. - The overall passenger load factor for the three major airlines was 82.9%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the aviation sector driven by recent policies and tightening supply, leading to improved demand [1][3]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - In September, the overall passenger load factor was 83.3%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month but an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The domestic passenger load factor was 84.3%, up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor was 80.0%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines led with a passenger load factor of 85.5%, while China Eastern and Air China reported 83.5% and 79.7%, respectively [2]. - Spring Airlines maintained a passenger load factor of 90.5%, consistent with the same period in 2019 [3]. Financial Projections - China National Aviation's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 79.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a net loss of 2.782 billion [12]. - China Eastern Airlines reported a revenue of 64.199 billion for the first half of 2024, up 29.9%, with a net loss of 2.768 billion [14]. - China Southern Airlines had a revenue of 84.790 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with a net loss of 1.228 billion [16]. Stock Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 8.80 RMB [3][12]. - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 4.45 RMB [14]. - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 6.60 RMB [16]. - Spring Airlines (601021 CH) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 73.50 RMB [17]. - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 19.75 RMB [18].