HTSC·2024-10-16 02:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for 1339 HK and "Hold" for 601319 CH, with target prices set at HKD 4.40 and RMB 7.20 respectively [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with an estimated growth of 65-85% year-on-year, amounting to approximately RMB 338.30-379.31 billion [3]. - The company's insurance business is developing steadily, with a 7.4% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - The investment performance is anticipated to improve due to a rise in the stock market, which is expected to boost net profit, net assets, and intrinsic value [4]. - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance is projected to grow by 68% in 2024, despite a slight decline in new single premium income [5]. - The underwriting performance for property and casualty insurance is expected to remain stable, with original insurance premium income growing by 4.6% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts gross premium income to be RMB 534.09 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.99% increase from the previous year [7]. - Total investment income is projected to rise significantly to RMB 60.29 billion in 2024, a 94.39% increase year-on-year [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 40.33 billion in 2024, representing an 80.65% increase [7]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated EPS for 2024 is RMB 0.91, with a projected dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.33 [7]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 7.78 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [7]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to be 1.18 in 2024, suggesting a reasonable valuation relative to the company's book value [7]. Investment Strategy - The valuation approach includes a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method, utilizing discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis for different business segments [10]. - The target price is derived from an average of intrinsic value and book value methods, with intrinsic value estimated at RMB 7.6 and book value at RMB 6.7 [10].