轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报：轻纺Q3前瞻一览，家居以旧换新持续落地需求改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Multiple policies are being introduced, focusing on a potential reversal in consumer expectations, particularly in the home improvement sector [2] - The home improvement subsidy program is expected to gradually improve demand and industry dynamics, with larger brands and distributors likely to benefit more [2] - The current valuation of the home improvement industry is considered low, with ample room for recovery as pessimistic expectations in the real estate sector improve [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 154 listed companies with a total market value of 824.02 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 695.04 billion yuan [2] Recent Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.45%, and the light industry manufacturing index by 7.01%, ranking 23rd among 28 industries [1][12] - The textile and apparel index decreased by 6.44%, ranking 21st among 28 industries [12] Key Company Performance - Notable companies include: - Baiya Co., Ltd. with a stock price of 24.93 yuan and an EPS forecast of 0.76 for 2024 [3] - Oupai Home with a stock price of 55.50 yuan and an EPS forecast of 5.31 for 2024 [3] - Sofia with a stock price of 16.29 yuan and an EPS forecast of 2.75 for 2024 [3] Consumer Trends - The home improvement sector is seeing a gradual recovery in demand due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape [2] - The report highlights the resilience of the soft furniture segment compared to custom furniture, with expectations of marginal improvement in demand in Q4 [4] Export and Domestic Sales - The export chain shows strong resilience, with companies like Jiayi Co., Ltd. and Xi Da Men expected to perform well [4] - Domestic sales in the home improvement sector are under pressure, but the introduction of subsidies is anticipated to provide a boost [4] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends indicate a slight increase in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices rising, while cotton prices have decreased [16][20] Real Estate Market Insights - Recent data shows a significant increase in property transactions during the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 82.7% in transaction volume [30][31]