山西证券：研究早观点-20241016

Market Overview - The new materials sector experienced a decline this week, with the new materials index falling by 4.79%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 1.38% [3] - Over the past five trading days, the synthetic biology index rose by 9.49%, semiconductor materials increased by 25.94%, electronic chemicals grew by 19.21%, biodegradable plastics went up by 7.17%, industrial gases increased by 12.19%, and battery chemicals rose by 14.19% [3] Industry Commentary - Hainan Province has amended its "plastic ban" regulations, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of biodegradable plastics. The new regulations will take effect on December 1, 2024, and include stricter penalties for violations [3] - The establishment of the world's first bio-based polyester textile industry alliance by Huaheng is anticipated to accelerate the application of bio-based PTT. The global market size for bio-based PTT is estimated to be approximately 3.4 billion yuan in 2023, projected to reach 8.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% [4] Company Analysis: 聚灿光电 (300708.SZ) - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 107.02% year-on-year [5] - The third quarter saw a single-quarter revenue of 689 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.40%, while net profit decreased by 10.62% [5] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.10%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and improved product structure [6] - The net profit margin for the same period was 7.89%, up 3.67 percentage points year-on-year, due to effective cost control and reduced financial expenses [6] Investment Recommendations - Despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 performance, the overall performance and profitability of the company have significantly improved in the first three quarters. The acceleration of fundraising project implementation and the gradual release of production capacity are expected to enhance future profitability [7] - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 237 million yuan, 293 million yuan, and 430 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 95.5%, 23.8%, and 46.8%, respectively [7]