中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：滞涨之后，转债会补涨吗？-20241016

Key Insights - The report discusses the potential for convertible bonds to experience a rebound after a period of stagnation, particularly in light of recent equity market recoveries and policy changes [3][4] - It highlights the characteristics of convertible bond adjustments this year, noting an increase in proposals for adjustments among lower-priced bonds [5][6] - The human-shaped robot sector is reviewed, emphasizing the impact of major players like Tesla and the ongoing evolution of the industry [5][6] Convertible Bonds Analysis - Since September 24, convertible bonds have seen a 7.9% increase, lagging behind the 21.4% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, raising questions about future performance [3] - The report draws parallels with previous periods of stagnation in convertible bonds, particularly from February to May 2024, where a high proportion of bonds were debt-oriented, limiting overall performance [3][4] - The current market shows a significant number of debt-oriented convertible bonds, which are expected to continue to dominate the market, affecting the overall growth potential of convertible bonds [3][4] Characteristics of Convertible Bond Adjustments - As of September 18, 2024, 159 convertible bonds have been proposed for adjustment, representing 18.57% of the total, with a notable increase compared to previous years [5] - The probability of adjustments varies by price range, with bonds priced between 90-100 yuan showing a high likelihood of adjustments, while those below 80 yuan have a low probability [5][6] - The report suggests that the current market sentiment may favor lower-priced and near-term bonds for potential adjustments, indicating a strategic focus for investors [5][6] Human-Shaped Robot Sector Review - The report notes that several companies in the human-shaped robot sector have released new products and are entering practical applications in manufacturing environments [5] - Tesla's plans to deploy thousands of robots in its factories are highlighted as a significant development, alongside advancements from other companies like Figure AI and Yushu [5] - The investment strategy in this sector is suggested to focus on leading manufacturers and their supply chains, particularly as domestic companies catch up with international leaders [5][6]