市场点评：市场有望在新中枢上波动

Market Commentary - The market is expected to fluctuate around a new central point, primarily driven by structural opportunities [1] - On October 15, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.53% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 3.22%. The total trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1.65 trillion, remaining flat compared to the previous trading day [1] - The only sector that saw a slight increase was the military industry, while other sectors such as beauty care (-3.6%), non-ferrous metals (-3.27%), and food and beverage (-3.16%) faced notable declines [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The escalation of tensions between North and South Korea, alongside a drop in international oil prices, has dampened market sentiment. Reports indicate that North Korea has destroyed some roads between the two countries, leading to military responses from South Korea [1] - The significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling by 4.9% on October 14 and continuing to decline, has negatively impacted major weight sectors [1] - Expectations for macroeconomic policy adjustments have also been pushed back, with reports suggesting that the National People's Congress may delay its meeting until early November, further suppressing market sentiment [1] Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to remain in a state of fluctuation at a new central point, awaiting new opportunities for macroeconomic policy reinforcement [1] - Historical analysis shows that after rapid declines in trading volume, the market typically stabilizes, with 9 out of 10 instances since 2010 seeing a stabilization after a drop of 50-60% in volume [1] - The current trading volume is expected to stabilize at a high level, with a likelihood of slight declines in the Shanghai Composite Index and potential gains in the ChiNext Index over the next 30 trading days [1] Investment Opportunities - There are two main lines of focus for potential investment: 1. Growth sectors with improving liquidity and expected strong performance in Q3 reports, including electronics, new energy, telecommunications, and military industries. These sectors are anticipated to benefit from policy easing and high trading volumes [1] 2. Consumer goods with potential policy support, such as home appliances, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture. These sectors have shown signs of stagnation and may experience a rebound due to domestic demand and export growth [4]