银行：金融｜如何理解财政部会议——未来动态博弈，化债和稳地产利于银行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that fiscal policy is clearly defined, with its direction and intensity being in a dynamic negotiation process. The recent announcements indicate a proactive stance, with some areas exceeding expectations [4][5] - The central government's leverage is expected to increase, with significant measures for debt resolution and real estate support being highlighted. The focus on enhancing consumer spending aligns with expectations [5][6] - Short-term fiscal policy expectations are identified as the main driver of capital market fluctuations, while medium to long-term policies are crucial for economic recovery and growth [8][9] Summary by Sections Overall Evaluation - The report indicates a positive outlook on fiscal policy, with clear direction and sustained efforts. The dynamic nature of fiscal policy requires ongoing observation [4][5] - The report notes that the fiscal policy's scale and intensity reflect the decision-makers' determination and framework [8] Impact on Banks - The report outlines that the expected increase in central leverage and measures for debt resolution will positively impact banks' asset quality and credit costs [7][8] - Specific measures include the issuance of special bonds to support state-owned banks, which will enhance their capital and credit capabilities [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as selecting undervalued city commercial banks [9] - It also recommends large banks with high dividend yields, including Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others, due to their expected benefits from economic recovery and debt resolution [9]